By the time the area’s drought reached its third year, the creeks and rivers of South Central Texas had long dried up. For most, it happened slowly, shrinking over time until just a puddle remained. For others, it was a shock. One summer, there was water. The next, there was none. Either way, the waterways that normally flowed through the Hill Country had dried into the rock beds and the time for swimming was over. 
The ongoing drought’s repercussions are clear in the San Antonio area. River and creek flows are at the slowest they have ever been, lakes are dried up or drying up and, from January to March this year, the Edwards Aquifer’s water levels reached their lowest levels since the record drought of the  1950s. Without normal rainfall, the agency that manages the aquifer could find itself implementing Stage 4 restrictions earlier this year than any time in its history. 
Over 2 million people and thousands of farmers depend on water from the Edwards Aquifer, a porous, limestone cavern system spanning hundreds of feet underground and across 3,600 square miles. The aquifer provides the San Antonio Water System with just over 50 percent of its water supply. 
The Edwards Aquifer’s current water level is at 635 feet, having dropped more than 15 feet in the past year and about two feet in the past 10 days. When the rolling average drops below 630 feet, it will trigger the Edwards Aquifer Authority — the government entity that regulates use of the aquifer  —  to call for Stage 4 water restrictions for suppliers who draw from the Edwards Aquifer. Those restrictions means reducing pumping by 40 percent from normal levels  —  a major cutback for some Hill Country communities, many of whom get all their water from the aquifer. 
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At the same time, surface water throughout South Central Texas is being sucked dry. The Guadalupe, Medina and the Llano rivers have had historically low flows for this time of the year, while Canyon and Medina lakes are shrinking. And a number of popular natural swimming holes, such as Jacob’s Well in Wimberley, are shut down.
Paul Bertetti, the Edwards Aquifer Authority’s senior director of aquifer science research and modeling, says this means the next few weeks are vital for the drought.
“It’s all about rainfall,” he said. “Even if we have normal rainfall during May and June’s rainy months, we should expect to see the same declines as we would during the summer. Unfortunately, at this point we have not even received a normal amount of rainfall. We’re about half of normal.” 
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A dead tree lies across a completely dry Medina River Tuesday, April 4, 2023, near Gross Lane just east of La Coste. The river has had a flow rate of less than 1 cubic foot per second since March 25, according to the United State Geological Survey’s rive gauge in La Coste as shown on the agency’s water date website. The river’s flow has been below 5 cfs for much of the last six months, according to the website, and has been above 10 cfs only once since the second week of Sept. 2022. Median flow for the river is about 40 cfs.
Gross Lane crosses a completely dry Medina River Tuesday, April 4, 2023, just east of La Coste. The river has had a flow rate of less than 1 cubic foot per second since March 25, according to the United State Geological Survey’s rive gauge in La Coste as shown on the agency’s water date website. The river’s flow has been below 5 cfs for much of the last six months, according to the website, and has been above 10 cfs only once since the second week of Sept. 2022. Median flow for the river is about 40 cfs.
Large tires used as a breakwater stand high and dry Wednesday, March 15, 2023, at Canyon Lake’s Cranes Mill Marina as the lake dropped to 77 percent full Wednesday and 11.50 feet below conservation pool, according to the Texas Water Development Board’s Water Data for Texas website. That level approaches the reservoir’s lowest springtime level in over 30 years.
A car crosses the dry Guadalupe River at the Rebecca Creek Road crossing Jan. 25, 2023, as the river upstream from Canyon Lake remains abnormally low. Despite rains earlier in the week, the river remains far below its median flow rate in this area for this time of year of about 150 cubic feet per second and goes completely dry before reaching Canyon Lake. Prior to the rains, the USGS gauge just upstream from Rebecca Creek Road at FM 311 had been showing a flow rate of about 18 cfs in the river. The rains brought the flow up to 43 cfs for a few hours before the river began dropping again.
The Frio River is seen Feb. 15, 2023 in Concan. The river is flowing at just over 21 cubic feet per second in Concan according to the USGS’s water data website, but it goes dry before reaching FM 2690. Median flow for this time of year is three times the river’s current flow.
The Frio River is seen Feb. 15, 2023, at the FM 2690 crossing just south of Concan. The river is flowing at just over 21 cubic feet per second in Concan according to the USGS’s water data website, but it goes dry before reaching FM 2690. Median flow for this time of year is three times the river’s current flow.
The upper reaches of Canyon Lake are seen Wednesday, Jan. 25, 2023, near Comal County boat ramp #11 at Rebecca Creek. Canyon lake is more than 10 1/2 feet low and just 78.6 percent full, according to the Texas Water Development Board’s Water Data For Texas website.
A car crosses the dry Guadalupe River at the Rebecca Creek Road crossing Jan. 25, 2023, as the river upstream from Canyon Lake remains abnormally low. Despite rains earlier in the week, the river remains far below its median flow rate in this area for this time of year of about 150 cubic feet per second and goes completely dry before reaching Canyon Lake. Prior to the rains, the USGS gauge just upstream from Rebecca Creek Road at FM 311 had been showing a flow rate of about 18 cfs in the river. The rains brought the flow up to 43 cfs for a few hours before the river began dropping again.
Between January to March this year, the San Antonio area has received 3.17 inches of rain. The average is 6 inches. 
“If we follow this trend, we could see Stage 4 restrictions by early this summer,” Bertetti said. “If that’s the case, some communities will potentially be under a lot more stress this year.” 
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Since the Edwards Aquifer Authority created the initial drought rules in 2000, restrictions have reached Stage 4 only twice, in 2014 and 2022. 
Due to drought from 2011 to 2014, the aquifer authority implemented 89 days of Stage 4 restrictions – which requires a 40 percent reduction of Edwards Aquifer use – from August to November. In 2022, after a year of severe drought, the area entered Stage 4 in August for a few days and then again in October for a total of 24 days.
While there is always significant uncertainty, projections by the Edwards Aquifer Authority found that at normal rainfall, the aquifer could reach Stage 4 in August. But with less than normal rainfall, it could be as early as June.
However, San Antonio’s city-owned water utility, the San Antonio Water System, has its own set of regulations. Because SAWS also gets water from sources other than the Edwards Aquifer, the utility has only gone into Stage 2 watering restrictions during this drought. Stage 2 restrictions mean SAWS customers are limited to watering their lawns once per week. 
Even if the Edwards Aquifer Authority enters Stage 4, it’s not a guarantee that SAWS would also tighten its restrictions and move to Stage 3,  which would limit to watering every other week. SAWS says it will analyze water supplies and customer demand every two weeks.
“The way the city ordinance is crafted is that Stage 3 is something that we start contemplating once the Edwards Aquifer triggers Stage 3, and if it appears that we’re not going to have enough apply to meet demand going forward, SAWS would recommend with the city manager to go into Stage 3,” said Karen Guz, vice president of water conservation at SAWS. 
“The answer at the moment is no, not right now. We are not recommending (Stage 3).” 
Recently, the utility has been cracking down on water use violaters. From Jan. 1 to April 5, SAWS issued 1,136 citations and 734 warnings to residents for not following watering restrictions. A citation costs about $130.
On average, depending on the family size, a home might use 5,000 gallons a month in the winter and 8,000 gallons a month in the summer. Houses with an automatic irrigation system might use as much as 15,000 gallons a month. 
But when SAWs officials see a customer using 20,000 gallons or more, they know something is wrong. That is more water than 95 percent of the other SAWS customers. 
“It would be premature to move to Stage 3 before we ramp up enforcement on Stage 2 through community messaging and communications,” Guz said. “We are watching the Edwards Aquifer constantly.” 
On the other hand, communities outside of San Antonio might need to jump when the Edwards Aquifer Authority says jump. 
The city of Alamo Heights, which sits just north of San Antonio, depends entirely on the Edwards Aquifer for water. Today, the city is in Stage 3 watering restrictions, meaning watering once every other week. If the region enters Stage 4, Alamo Heights City Council might hold an emergency session to consider other watering restrictions.
“If (city council) wants to incorporate more stringent conservation measures or whatever it may be, they can,” said Patrick Sullivan, public works director for Alamo Heights. “But they’ll be the ones to determine if we need to make any adjustments.” 
In New Braunfels, the city’s utilities anticipates pulling about 6,000 acre feet in total from the Edwards Aquifer this year. In the case of Stage 4, New Braunfels utilities would determine if stricter measures were necessary, according to the city. Watering restrictions, landscape limitations and other activities would all be examined on a day-to-day basis until Stage 4 could be lifted. 
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A car crosses the dry Guadalupe River at the Rebecca Creek Road crossing Jan. 25, 2023, as the river upstream from Canyon Lake remains abnormally low. Despite rains earlier in the week, the river remains far below its median flow rate in this area for this time of year of about 150 cubic feet per second and goes completely dry before reaching Canyon Lake. Prior to the rains, the USGS gauge just upstream from Rebecca Creek Road at FM 311 had been showing a flow rate of about 18 cfs in the river. The rains brought the flow up to 43 cfs for a few hours before the river began dropping again.
For nearly two years, the United States has been under the influence of La Nina, a global climate pattern that causes an increase in drought and heat throughout the south. The weather has since shifted, however, and neutrality has taken over. 
Neutral means normal patterns, such as more typical heat and rainfall through the spring and summer. This would be better for San Antonio’s drought, but not good enough. El Nino, a different weather pattern that brings rain and colder than average temperatures to the southern United States, could increase the amount of precipitation, Bertetti said. However, climatologists don’t foresee El Nino activities until the fall. 
Last year, San Antonio was 20 inches behind normal precipitation – meaning it will take a lot of water to bounce back from the drought and the Edwards Aquifer region should expect drought restrictions for the entire year. It also means the rivers, creeks and lakes will continue to struggle. 
Of the 306 creek and river gauging stations in the San Antonio area, 34 percent are below normal and 22 percent are well below normal as of March, said Doug Schnoebelen, branch chief for the South Texas U.S. Geological Survey. Both the Guadalupe River Basin and the San Antonio River Basin are of concern. 
Adequate flows in river, creeks and lakes are crucial for wildlife that depend on the aquatic ecosystem, according to experts. Without enough water, fish will compete for oxygen as the water levels shrink and harmful algae blooms and bacteria growth can form in stagnant areas. Some aquatic species can adapt to low flow and move to areas with higher flow, but other species, like mussels, are too slow to move and will die out.  Animals will generally be able to bounce back after the flow increase again, but in the case of an incredibly low flow event, some species may be in more trouble. 
Low water flow also impacts local economies and businesses. Tubing operations could go be out of business for an entire summer or local lakeside restaurants see a decrease in customers. In the Medina Lake community, lake-view property taxes are the same even without a lake and realtors are selling on the prospect of future water. 
“If we don’t get rain this spring, it will be a missed opportunity for these creeks and rivers,” Schnoebelen said. “And going into the summer usually doesn’t look good because of the high heat, high humidity and high evaporation rates. It takes a lot of rain to recharge these streams and then to recharge the aquifer.”
Based on 40 years of data, the Medina River in Bandera is at the lowest flows in history. The average water flow is 139 cubic feet per second. As of April 5, the flow is at 5.81 cubic feet per second. Based on 32 years of record data, the Guadalupe River just north of San Antonio is at 1.63 cubic feet per second, which is the lowest it has ever been. Prior to this year, the lowest record was 1.73 cubic feet per second in 2014.  A cubic foot of water is about the size of a basketball.  
“That’s the thing about Texas is we have really high water flows and then really low water flows,” Schnoebelen said. “Right now, we’re in a drought. Next year, we could be flooding.” 
The last time creak and river levels were this low was in 2014, during the years-long drought in South Central Texas. Still, last year’s lack of precipitation beat out that year and every year since 1917. Medina Lake – a reservoir about 50 miles west of San Antonio – is at 5.3 percent of capacity. It dropped about 16 percent in a year due to irrigation pumping and the drought. The last time the levels were that low was in 2015. 
Canyon Lake, a natural lake north of San Antonio, is at 76.3 percent capacity, having dropped 20 percent in the past year. If the lake drops another five feet, it will reach its lowest levels in the past 50 years.
“This rain we’ve gotten recently is maybe enough to keep the grass green, but it’s really not enough for our streams, or our reservoirs, or our aquifer,” Schnoebelen said. “That’s what we need.
 
Elena Bruess is the environment, water and climate reporter for the San Antonio Express-News.

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